The COVID Decision Model: Analysis and Insight for Effective Policy Management
IS THE CURE WORSE THAN THE DISEASE? Should we continue lockdown? Should we open-up? How can we safely open-up? This is the endless COVID-19 debate among public officials, citizens, business, health and medical personnel, and researchers. This debate has been fueled by the lack of COVID -19 planning models which can accurately predict the spread of this disease and determine the RISKs associated with various reopening strategies. Our COVID-19 DECISION MODEL is different and can do so.
The CDM is a sophisticated tool, implementing a Monte Carlo analysis engine utilizing an agent-based discrete time-modeling approach that correlates well with actual COVID-19 data. The input parameters are matched to data that describe demographics and disease characteristics. The CDM tool is unique and can model the dynamics of a virus spread from beginning to end, allowing us to gauge the effects of mitigation measures over time. We can assess the risk of a second wave or the vulnerability of a community to reinfection. Our data-driven dynamic analysis approach can be easily calibrated against known data and provide insights which can help shape reasonable public policy.