Analysis and Insight for Effective Policy Management
[08/19/20 Update: Actual Death and Hospitalization Data Made Current in Plots. Our predictions from late May are exceptionally accurate indicating NYC indeed reached the Herd Immunity Threshold in April] New York City has flattened the curve and is well positioned...Read More
There is much discussion about recovery plans and the best strategy to return to normal. The CDC has proposed a phased recovery approach that we have studied in our recovery models for NYC, LA County and Georgia. Many states are moving out with this...Read More
A recently published article suggests that we are much closer to herd immunity than the experts suggest. In a nutshell, the authors suggest that variation in connectivity (mobility / contact rates) and susceptibility (variation in viral resistance) will significantly lower...Read More
John Safranek, MD It is difficult to discern whether the reporting on COVID-19 is a function of political bias or ineptitude. What is not difficult to discern is that it is has been mistaken. Based on erroneous analysis, many commentators...Read More
George Delgado, MD Many states have not allowed the resumption of religious gatherings due to perceived risk of COVID-19 transmission. It is our view that resumption of religious services can take place in a manner that does not jeopardize public...Read More
Controlling the Second Wave Just as states return to some semblance of normal life, commentators and experts have suddenly predicted a very bleak future for the United States. The CDC, for one, has predicted that COVID-19 mortality will double to...Read More
[05/29/20 Update: More details from April 27th update by governor Cuomo relative to antibody testing results pushing results from 21% to 25%: almost-a-quarter-of-nyc-residents-test-positive-for-covid-19-antibodies-cuomo] It’s time for New York City to get back to work. The White House/CDC plan [Guidelines for Opening...Read More
[08/12/20 Update: This analysis from May assumed a gradual and measured return to normal per the CDC guidelines. The rapid June return to high connectivity that caused the summer surge was not anticipated. As a result, the winter surge shown...Read More
There is a common perception that Sweden is paying a high price for their soft approach to locking down, while other Scandinavian countries, Denmark and Norway, have much fewer deaths because of their more aggressive mitigation strategies. This simple analysis...Read More