Bergamo Italy 57% Exposure Rate Analysis
Analysis of the Bergamo Outbreak
We have completed an analysis of the Bergamo region outbreak using the Covid Decision Model and account for these regional factors as inputs to the analysis:
- elderly age demographic representative of the region.
- a severe seed rate for Wuhan workers early in the year.
- high connectivity population.
- standard outcome distributions based on latest data with sloped asymptomatic versus age (about 50% overall).
- representative lockdown profile.
If antibody testing shows 57% exposure then we would calculate IFR of 6,000 / 570,000 = .01 or 1%. Our analysis results show that overall 60% of the population become infected mid summer as the last vestiges of the disease die out with an IFR of 1.11%. Our simulation population of 100k scaled by 10.