Sweden is of great interest to the international community. They have a soft policy in place the looks to be quite effective based on a our analysis. Sweden may offer valuable lessons for a balanced recovery. Predictions of massive deaths through the next few months are not consistent with data or the results presented here. The measures the Swedes have in place are largely sustainable and can be easily backed off over time. Sweden will require more study and assessment, but the indications are that their strategy has been effective at mitigating the spread of the virus and keeping their society functioning. A summary of Sweden’s strategy details their balanced approach.
A model of NY State is presented. Base simulation population of 2 Million scaled to 12 million. The majority of NY State Deaths are in NYC Metro Area. Population excludes northern NJ. New York locked down after the infection had gained significant momentum. NY is representative of a subset of Michigan and Louisiana, where infections hit early in dense urban areas. NY will have a different recovery strategy than the rest of the country. They have a higher percentage of the population already exposed or infected by the virus and with a modest 2/3 reduction in potential infection spreading contacts, they can likely establish herd immunity and get back to normal quickly.
Los Angeles is very much like San Diego in demographics. However, they are seeing a higher death rate. A likely cause for this is slower lock down and adaption of social distancing.
A model of San Diego County is presented utilizing a base simulation population of 3 million people. There is evidence that San Diego had early exposure to the virus, but the demographic and lack of density compared to New York has resulted in a slower infection spread. San Diego also reduced the growth of the infection with an early lockdown. San Diego’s recovery strategy may be somewhat different than New York. San Diego is largely representative of the west coast where a controlled return to normal can be guided by a 75% reduction in potential infection spreading contacts relative to how things were before the virus hit. It is likely that the majority of the population has not been exposed. The baseline demographic tends to slow the spread of the virus as compared to the baseline in New York.
A model of the state of Nebraska is presented with a base simulation population of 2 million. Nebraska was late to get the virus and was already practicing moderate social distancing. The spread has been minimal. Nebraska’s strategy will be different than NY. Nebraska is largely representative of the central part of the country. A controlled return to normalcy can be guided by a 65% reduction in potential infection spreading contacts relative to how things were before the virus hit.