California: Roadmap for a Balanced Recovery

California: Roadmap for a Balanced Recovery [8/9/20 Update: The second wave is larger than anticipated due to mitigation fatigue.  Minor narrative edits and the addition of Case 5] Second Wave California case counts are on the rise.  There is a modest uptick in deaths.  The demographic of infections has shifted...Read More

Reported versus Actual Date of Death

Reported versus Actual Date of Death "Reported" versus "Actual": Two Different Things Very few states or countries report the "actual date" of death. The data sets typically presented in aggregate data-bases such as The COVID Tracking Project use "reported date" of death. This data is often choppy with many deaths...Read More

Rational Policy Strategies for the COVID-19 Pandemic

Rational Policy Strategies for the COVID-19 Pandemic George Delgado, MD Overview As we see more COVID-19 cases in the United States, there is much debate about the best strategies to employ to get through the pandemic. Many Americans have relaxed their adherence to mitigation measures (“COVID-19 mitigation fatigue”); some states...Read More

Bergamo Italy 57% Exposure Rate Analysis

Bergamo Italy 57% Exposure Rate Analysis Let's look at special case high density outbreak, like the Bergamo region of northen Italy, approximately 1 million people.  Here we see an elderly demographic, high connectivity culture and a high seed rate via the Wuhan province worker connection.  These conditions presents a perfect...Read More

Arizona: Second Wave Infection Analysis

Arizona: Second Wave Infection Analysis [08/02/20 Update: This analysis has been refreshed.  See our recent post: Arizona: Summer Analysis Update] [07/31/20 Update: Our analysis for Arizona will be refreshed with our improved algorithm and latest data.  Our estimate of increased activity in June was low and as a result we...Read More

Are We Closer to Herd Immunity than Most Experts Say?

Are We Closer to Herd Immunity than Most Experts Say? A recently published article suggests that we are much closer to herd immunity than the experts suggest.  In a nutshell, the authors suggest that variation in connectivity (mobility / contact rates) and susceptibility (variation in viral resistance) will  significantly lower...Read More

It’s time for New York City to get back to work.

It’s time for New York City to get back to work. [05/29/20 Update: More details from April 27th update by governor Cuomo relative to antibody testing results pushing results from 21% to 25%: almost-a-quarter-of-nyc-residents-test-positive-for-covid-19-antibodies-cuomo] It’s time for New York City to get back to work.  The White House/CDC plan [Guidelines...Read More

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