Do we know the current risk of infection in NY?

[Reference: New York State Case Study]

If we measure risk in terms of the number of new infections to healthy uninfected population, the simulation shows that this peaked right at the point of the shutdown in NY. As the death rate is peaking out, perceived risk is high, but the actual risk of infection has dropped by an order of magnitude.  This reduction in risk is the result of effective mitigation measures.Folks understandably are reacting to the death rate but the reality is the lock-down has greatly diminished the risk of infection.

Another way to look at this is to examine the ratio of active infections to the non-infected population.  Here we see a similar decline in risk based on just the numbers.  This removes the reduction in risk from mitigation efforts.   Looking at this raw ratio we also the risk of infection is dropping as the infectious population recovers.



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