[07/01/20 Update: Our assumptions concerning social distancing and connectivity were overly conservative. The data shows that there is ongoing contact within pockets of LA that are driving a slower decline in deaths than predicted. With light infection levels, early predictions are prone to error. Review our LA County Recovery Model for a more accurate view of LA County. This recovery model will be updated soon.]
Los Angeles County is similar in many ways to San Diego County. However, there are indications, particularly the higher death rate, suggesting that Los Angeles was a bit slow shutting down. Multiple runs were completed and representative high, low and nominal cases are shown below with the actual cumulative death curve from LA County. This particular scenario models just the initial wave, with no relaxation of lock-down, and is indicative of what to expect into mid May.
Here are the input parameters:
The reduction in transmission factor is more gradual than the curve used for the San Diego County model:
The demographics are essentially the same as the San Diego County case:
The outcome probability table assumes 50% asymptomatic cases:
The death rate peaks out at around 40 to 50 deaths per day in late April.
Hospital demand peaks at less than 2000 for standard care beds and less than 1000 for critical care beds.
Overall deaths for the initial wave are projected to be in the range of 1600.
Mitigation measures bring the multiplication factor R0 below 1 in late March.
The major spread of the disease has been mitigated, and the model indicates a significant portion of susceptible people have not been infected.