New York City Recovery Model
We have applied the model to New York City. Our model reliably depicts the death rate in New York City and now predicts that it is safe to implement as described in the presidents Plan for Opening Up America Again.
Our model predicts that Phase 1 will result in residual deaths from pre-Phase 1 existing infections but the new infections and deaths will continue to quickly decline. Phase 2 and Phase 3 death rates will be low. Once we open up the model after phase 3 there is a comeback that is comparable in peak death rate to a typical flu season in NYC. We would recommend and our model assumes, continued protection of the most vulnerable post-Phase 3.
We recommend monitoring the rate of infection and hospitalization. If those rates do not markedly increase, we can continue with the plan. If those rates increase, we can return to some components of the prior phase until reasonable control is achieved. For example, if we find that crowded events, such as large sporting events or concerts, lead to increases, then these may have to be suspended. Our policy management decisions should be data driven and attack the source of infection risk.
The dynamic parameters used in this simulation are derived from our analysis of the CDC / White House plan [Recovery Plan Phase Modifiers]. We have also included a mild reduction in fatalities and transmission due to climate effects. School age activities are opened in the summer. We hold the access to vulnerable individuals low to afford extra protection while the rest of the population gets back to normal over Phase 2 and Phase 3. The post recovery phase of this model allows for an 80% return to normal contact rates while we still protect the vulnerable.