Rational Policy Strategies for the COVID-19 Pandemic

Rational Policy Strategies for the COVID-19 Pandemic George Delgado, MD Overview As we see more COVID-19 cases in the United States, there is much debate about the best strategies to employ to get through the pandemic. Many Americans have relaxed their adherence to mitigation measures (“COVID-19 mitigation fatigue”); some states...Read More

Bergamo Italy 57% Exposure Rate Analysis

Bergamo Italy 57% Exposure Rate Analysis Let's look at special case high density outbreak, like the Bergamo region of northen Italy, approximately 1 million people.  Here we see an elderly demographic, high connectivity culture and a high seed rate via the Wuhan province worker connection.  These conditions presents a perfect...Read More

Deriving Accurate Disease Vector Metrics for Recovery Management

Key Metrics for Recovery: Actual Disease Vectors There are several important metrics to understand where a community, state or region is with the spread of the COVID-19: The true percentage of the population infected and those who are infectious: I(t). The rate of change of the infection as represented current...Read More

Are We Closer to Herd Immunity than Most Experts Say?

Are We Closer to Herd Immunity than Most Experts Say? A recently published article suggests that we are much closer to herd immunity than the experts suggest.  In a nutshell, the authors suggest that variation in connectivity (mobility / contact rates) and susceptibility (variation in viral resistance) will  significantly lower...Read More

Making Houses of Worship Safer than the Supermarket

Making Houses of Worship Safer than the Supermarket Many states have not allowed the resumption of religious gatherings due to perceived risk of COVID-19 transmission.  It is our view that resumption of religious services can take place in a manner that does not jeopardize public health. In fact, with proper...Read More

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