Recovery Models

Here we present viable, phased recovery models for the states we have examined in our case studies.  Each state has a different set of entry parameters.  The recovery models present applications of guidelines for recovery as described in the  federal  Opening Up America Again guidelines.   The plans has been parsed into input parameters that can be used in our simulation space.  Recovery phase modifiers based on this plan are here. We have also developed and age based recovery model that examines the effects of allowing different age groups to return to normal with different degrees of connectivity or social distancing: Age Based Recovery Strategy: An Optimal Balance.

Florida Second Wave Analysis

Current trends in Florida show a significant increase in percent positive test results in recent weeks.  Florida has significantly increased the amount of testing. The average age of infection has dropped substantially and there is clear evidence that younger people who are much lower risk of death from COVID-19 are out and about.

This second wave of infections is likely similar in magnitude to the initial outbreak in March, but early testing was limited, so this can be determined by secondary analysis using our COVID Decision Model. We take close look at the current data and evaluate outcome trends in Florida. Our model is well suited for modeling dynamic heterogeneous effects, especially those based on age demographics.

Arizona: Second Wave Infection Analysis

Current trends in Arizona show a significant increase in infections.  There was a bump in hospital admissions for COVID-19 in early June followed by a bump in deaths occurring 10 days later. Much of the media is reacting with hysteria concerning this second wave. We take close look at the data and evaluate what the real risks are going forward using our COVID Decision Model, which is well suited for modeling dynamic heterogeneous effects.

Arizona: Second Wave Infection Analysis

Current trends in Arizona show a significant increase in infections.  There was a bump in hospital admissions for COVID-19 in early June followed by a bump in deaths occurring 10 days later. Much of the media is reacting with hysteria concerning this second wave. We take close look at the data and evaluate what the real risks are going forward using our COVID Decision Model, which is well suited for modeling dynamic heterogeneous effects.

NYC June Assessment: Ready to Open Up!

New York City has flattened the curve and is well positioned for a full recovery.  The current R(t) for NYC is well below 1.  Antibody testing completed in late April indicates that 25% of NYC population was infected. Our model indicates that the number is now closer to 33% considering infection growth over the month of May.  The infection has been suppressed and is rapidly dying out.

Are We Closer to Herd Immunity than Most Experts Say?

A recently published article suggests that we are much closer to herd immunity than the experts suggest.  In a nutshell, the authors suggest that variation in connectivity (mobility / contact rates) and susceptibility (variation in viral resistance) will  significantly lower the herd immunity threshold relative to standard theory.  Their hypothesis is this: the greater the variation in the population, the lower the threshold for herd immunity.  It is an interesting concept, and if true, it means we may be closer to getting back to normal than experts say.

LA County Recover Model

Los Angeles County has been hit with a very light outbreak and has for the most part suppressed the infection growth.  LA County is ready to start on a recovery plan.  We model an incremental three-step return to normal and discuss data driven policy options.

Georgia Recovery Model

Georgia quashed the infection early and is ready to start on the recovery plan.  We model an incremental three-step return to normal and discuss data driven policy options.

New York City Recovery Model

New York City is ready for a transition to recovery now.  A large percentage of the population has been exposed and the success of Sweden shows that New York City can safely implement the White House/CDC plan now and get back to work.  We model an incremental three-step return to normal and discuss data driven policy options.

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