Sweden: Death Rates Now Match Yearly Average

Excess deaths in Sweden are now less than zero when compared to the average deaths per day over the previous 5 years.  The significant period of excess deaths due to COVID-19 only spanned a 2.5 month interval from mid-March through the end of May.

Average of 2015-2019 vs 2020 Sweden Deaths per Day (7 day centered moving average)

Data from Statistics Sweden


Sweden’s balanced approach to managing the COVID-19 pandemic is an excellent model for balanced and rational mitigation policies as we outline here: Rational Policy Strategies for the COVID-19 Pandemic.

It appears Sweden has reached their herd immunity threshold. Their soft lock-down policy has been as effective as those of neighboring Scandinavian countries as we have discussed here: Sweden, Denmark, and Norway: Who’s Mitigation Strategy is Better?

3 thoughts on “Sweden: Death Rates Now Match Yearly Average”

  1. Hannah

August 19, 2020 at 1:05 pm

So the reason it’s dipped so far below the average death is because COVID hastened those deaths? And technically excess would be equal to years prior by the end of the year cumulatively?


    1. Bill Goyette

August 19, 2020 at 1:11 pm

The dip below the mean in late July and August would be from reporting delays over the most recent several weeks. Once it fills in it should be withing the range of the last 5 year average.


      1. Gunnar

August 21, 2020 at 11:51 am

The delay is approximately 2 weeks. That is my feeling when I have looked at the for the last couple of weeks.

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